King of the Hill 
Feb.7 2008

By  

Patrick Kendall 

I apologize…I apologize.  Obviously my critics will claim that I went into hiding until AFTER this game to see the outcome before getting back to the keyboard but I promise that is not the case.  You should really blame my wife.  She opened a new business and demands that I put my time in there as well…so you see?  Not my fault.  

(Honey, if you’re reading this, I LOVE spending all that quality time with you…REALLY!) 

Anyway, first I have to retroactively thumb my nose at Bob the Terp because of Duke’s big win in College Park.  Nyahh!   

Now, back to our regularly scheduled blog. 

Some of you might remember that I made the claim in December that Duke was the second best team in the conference.  Well, I am the first to admit when I’m wrong, loath though I am to do so.  Sigh…. 

Here I go. 

(Drum roll please…brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr) 

I made a mistake.  Duke is not the second best team in the ACC. 

They are in fact, without question, the best team in the ACC.   

If you don’t believe me check out the standings.  And for those of you who are going to whine about Lawson being the difference maker I’ll simply counter with the fact that Ginyard and Thomas combined for 26 points (unusually productive offensively and a testament to teammates “stepping up” when needed).   

Lawson didn’t play.  So what?  Duke would have been happy to play against Carolina with Lawson in the game and it would have been a different game but Carolina still ran effectively (when they could) – they average 15 turnovers a game even with Lawson and they can’t defend the perimeter even with Lawson so Duke’s game plan would have been the same.  Either way, if Lawson gets healthy he can end the debate by simply leading UNC to a victory in Durham on March 8. 

Also, UNC had four players score in double figures.  Most nights that would be enough on its own to get the ‘W.’ Just not against a team that has six players that can score in double digits (and Nolan Smith and Taylor King have gone double this season as well).   

And for those of you that insist Paulus is an overrated PG then I’ll thank you to take a gander at this stat line for the game: 18 points, 3 assists, 3 TOs, 4 steals.  Most importantly, 6-8 from 3pt land.  Not too shabby for a game of this scale and importance in a VERY hostile environment.   

So, to recap: for UNC I see it this way… 

Mansbrough is an animal (but not in Michael Beasley’s class so Mansbrough will lose out to another freshman for POY).  His stat line was sick but UNC sure could’ve used some of those missed free throws at the end of the game, huh? 

Ellington is a player with great promise who can’t stay consistent and doesn’t defend well enough to justify staying in the game when he is missing like he has been (think Taylor King – 37 seconds, two straight misses – thanks for trying). 

QT is a capable backup PG with no ability to handle constant pressure – but his one on one skills make him an asset in the open court. 

Danny Green is an enigma – his Jekyll/Hyde personality helps or hurts UNC depending on the output at the end of the night. 

Marcus Ginyard can score – this may have been what he needed to step up and become a legitimate fourth scorer for the ‘Heels. 

Deon Thompson/Alex Stephenson are both big guys with low-post skills and good shot-blocking ability – but where were they when the game was getting tight?  Contributors don’t disappear in the late stages of a game like this.  

For Duke it goes like this: 

Greg Paulus CAN lead a team at PG – especially one built around the fast break, man pressure and perimeter offense.  20-1 is not a fluke. 

Gerald Henderson is a legitimate All-ACC caliber player with explosive leaping and a nice mid-range game.  He plays solid defense as well.  Duke’s best all-around player. 

Kyle Singler is a legitimate star who put up more than respectable numbers against one of the top 3 big men in the country. 

Demarcus Nelson doesn’t have to have a great offensive night to be seen and felt in the game – just ask Wayne Ellington if he enjoyed being hounded by Nelson – and that was with four fouls for most of the second half. 

Jon Scheyer is the best sixth man in the conference – maybe the country.  He’s also the toughest skinny guy on the court, no matter who Duke is playing. 

Nolan Smith is the best backup PG in the conference – other than UNC and MD, who already boast great PGs, what team wouldn’t want Nolan Smith running its point? 

Lance Thomas can play in the post – his 10 points were critical in giving Duke a semblance of post presence.  He picked the right night show up – you can’t ask more from your undersized big man. 

Duke has shown without a doubt that it is a legitimate contender for the ACC crown and possibly the NCAA title.  Both UNC and MD (and Clemson for that matter) all pounded the ball inside to exploit Duke’s “weakness” and all came away with losses by nine points or more.   

To beat Duke (this season) you must keep the game in the sixties or seventies otherwise you are falling prey to Duke’s three-point shooting and fast break, spread offense.   

Slow the game down and force them to penetrate then take away the kick out and you have something. 

But for now, UNC is the team that has to walk into its own building knowing that Duke is King of the Hill. 

Finding Offense with UNC (No Need to be Defensive) 

By  

Patrick Kendall (rivalblues.com)
Jan 4.2008

Now I recognize these Heels.   

They look a lot like some of the great Kansas teams that ole Roy Boy used to coach (Collison and Pierce anyone?).  Up tempo, athletic, tough.  Big guards that could rebound and run; big men who could bull their way to the basket and draw the foul in a half-court set.  It’s all coming back to me. 

I also remember another thing about those teams: no defense.  The game plan was simple: you want to run, we’ll run.  At the end of the game let’s see who scored more.  Usually Kansas won those contests because they had better players. 

UNC has that same look this year.  Lawson pushes the ball quick, quick, quick.  Ellington is turning into a nice finisher (and his stroke IS very smooth outside); Danny Green is a nice athletic complement at the other wing spot; Ginyard can surprise you with his off the dribble quickness; Stephenson and Thompson are tough down low and Mansbrough is a virtual certainty to score once he catches the ball (he’ll go to the hoop, the line, or both).  It’s a nice offensive scheme. 

If I was going to quibble about something (and you know I will), it’s that they don’t play a lick of defense when you look at the whole of the game.  Oh sure, they have the kind of athletes that can turn it on in spurts but (and no matter who disagrees with me on this – Roy Boy certainly doesn’t) the team as a whole is not committed to defense at all.   

This mentality is what cost them so many losses during the regular season last year.  That’s why I’m very interested to see them against a hard-nosed Clemson team this weekend.  With the start of the ACC looming, we should get a good feel for how good Carolina is this year.  I do like their schedule for the most part so far this season: Valpo is a perennial tournament team and so is Kent State.  Both are solid mid-major opponents.  Roy Boy doesn’t fear putting his team at risk early on and so I commend him for that. 

But you can see his distaste for his team’s lack of defensive intensity at some point of every game – obviously no top tier coach is going to say “we fired on all cylinders out there so good for us” but he makes a point to discuss his disappointment regarding the numerous defensive lapses his team suffers through nightly.  Take for example the Kent State game.  Up 18 points in the first half, UNC allows Kent State to run off 7 straight before Ellington hits a long bomb of a 3-pointer at the buzzer to end the half.   

Sadly, UNC needed a prayer in order to steal back the momentum from a team that at one point (according to the TV stats) had scored 22 of 25 points from INSIDE the paint.  Letting a smaller team score from the inside using back screens (Carolina’s old staple offense) again and again is a definite no-no.   

So sure, I’m picking on them (again), but for most of you reading this, I’ll bet you didn’t have tickets bought and paid for last year for Atlanta with the expectation that UNC would be playing that weekend, did you?  Well, I did.  And watching them collapse against Georgetown last March hasn’t left me yet so I’m only cautiously optimistic (especially after watching Memphis drop the defensive hammer on G-town last month and hold Hibbert to 6 points) about their lofty status. 

Hopefully UNC watched that game and took notes.  They are going to have to give defense a try at some point if they plan on playing far into the tourney.   

You see, (and Roy Boy knows this intimately after living with the burden his entire time in Kansas) the problem with being number 1 at the start of the season and staying there through the midway point is that the expectations for post season play GROW.  None of the stars from this team were at UNC when they won the title in ’05.  The guys left from that team were minor contributors at the time and Frasor is lost for the season.   

UNC has to establish itself on BOTH ends of the floor this season to make sure of their place in Tar Heel history.  The truth is that they have all of the component pieces to win a title – talent, depth, athleticism, coaching.  They have a point guard who can score and pass (at light speed) a wing who can hit from long range, a slasher who can get to the rim and finish, tough “bigs” to enforce the paint, and the hardest working big man in the country anchoring the block. 

Expectations will continue to grow as they succeed and rack up wins.  When it’s all said and done, the only question I have is whether Mansbrough’s giant shoulders can carry the burden of those expectations all the way to San Antonio.  If so, I plan to be there and see it person.   

I just remember that I was there last year with the same expectations and UNC was nowhere to be seen that weekend.

By  

Patrick Kendall (rivalblues.com)

I’m happy. 

You want to know why? 

Because this year the rivalry between these two great and historic programs can be assessed on more than the enmity that exists between the campus bodies.  That was not the case last year where the Heels had a decided advantage at every position and also had more depth so they could finish as strong as they started. 

However, with all that talent, UNC still had issues with chemistry.  At points during the season (and especially against Georgetown) they really didn’t know who to turn to when the game counted (Roy Boy has to take a hit for this as well) and sometimes the lineups just didn’t gel.   

This season Ty Lawson has settled down (not slowed down, just settled down) and that shouldn’t be a problem – provided he stays healthy.  Make no mistake though, UNC is NOT the same team with Frasor or ‘Q’ running the show.  They’re still good, but they aren’t SCARY good without Lawson.   

That said, just like last year, I do believe that they have the right lineup to win it all in April but like last year, chemistry will make or break this team.  

Duke on the other hand has no chemistry issues at this point whatsoever.  They go ten deep and are an interchangeable unit that notices almost zero loss when substitutions are made.  I can’t tell if this will be a good thing all year or not but if Coach K can continue to get these guys shots and pile up ‘W’s then good things will continue to happen. 

The chemistry between this VERY young team is amazing.  They lock down on defense like the best Duke teams (though they don’t always do it for forty minutes – yet) and are equipped with enough athletes and shooters to go for 100 every night.   

Also, with ten players dressing and playing every night (so far) they’ve obviously addressed the depth issue (and then some) by putting together the deepest perimeter-capable team in the country – by far.  No other program can boast SEVEN different players already hitting MULTIPLE three pointers especially this early in the season.   

Best of all, this depth will ensure that Duke can also finish at the same pace that they start a game – and if you factor in that Duke is historically a second half team then you could argue that they are playing harder and faster at the end of games right now.  Of course it’s a long season and they play a LOT of games at home – though the match up with Pitt next week at Pitt should be a great gauge for where this team really is early on.

Duke is looking so good right now that Bob the Terp at work has pledged his loyalty to the Blue Devils and jettisoned his misguided allegiance to the University of Garyland (I’m still suspicious – I think he has a fiendish plan to somehow “Tonya Harding” Coach K when Duke arrives in College Park. I’ll have security ratcheted up obviously). 

So, what can we expect when the Devils meet the Heels this year?  Best guess, at a minimum, we can expect more equality in terms of talent (though Mansbrough is having a great year and continues to dominate in the post – not sure what Duke can do about him --  whacking him across the nose last year just made him mad – that dude is scary!) 

By position here’s how I see it: 

Point Guard – UNC gets the edge in starting guard here but overall I like Duke because they have a more capable back up in Nolan Smith.  He can score and defend better than Frasor or ‘Q’ so in a pinch, Paulus and Co. is my choice. 

Small Forward – Push.  Gerald Henderson is not the shooter that Wayne Ellington is but he is a better slasher/scorer.  On a team with less scoring on the wing Henderson would easily match Ellington’s production.  Long and short of it, you can’t go wrong with either. 

Power Forward – Duke.  Stephenson is a strong body and better post obstruction on defense but how can you not pick Kyle Singler as your choice here.  He’s not a true power forward but at 6’8 he has the height and he plays hard all around the basket.  In a lot of ways he reminds me of Mansbrough Lite.  And he can score from anywhere. 

Shooting guard – Duke has it all over UNC here because all of their players can hit from downtown.  Jon Scheyer is a proven entity and DeMarcus Nelson is a linebacker in a basketball uniform who can force his way to the basket almost at will.  

Center – Mansbrough – hands down.  He is the X factor in this matchup.  If he can get to the line 12 to 15 times and create foul problems for Zoubek and Co. then I see it being a tough night for Duke.   

If Duke can dictate tempo and negate the half-court dominance of Mansbrough then I like Duke.   

I’m taking the coward’s way out at the moment and calling for a split in the matchups – each team holds serve at home.  I am however predicting that Duke wins the ACC regular season and tournament again. 

They’ll also be a very tough out in the big tourney in March. 

Both teams make it to the Elite Eight; Carolina advances to the Final Four and cuts down the nets giving Roy Boy his second title.

The Top Ten Reasons to Smile this Holiday (Basketball) Season 

By  

Patrick Kendall 

This holiday season I find that there are many things to be grateful for.  For instance, I’m grateful that my daily commute isn’t longer than it is given the cost of gas. And I’m grateful that my house isn’t fully operated by gas appliances given the rising costs of that fuel source.  Also, I’m grateful that the taxes in my bonus check this morning only hit me for 40%.  But mostly, and most importantly, I’m grateful that the season is underway and that things are going very well for my two favorite teams.   

Actually, in a somewhat startling turn of events – at least as far a my humble expectations anyway – it could be argued that Duke is one of the great surprises so far this year but we’ll save that full argument for a later date and time.  Right now it’s time for me to release my Top Ten Reasons to Smile this Holiday (Basketball) Season (in case the title of the article didn’t give it away already). 

Number 10: the ACC wins the Big Ten/ACC Challenge Again

Now obviously this only rates if you’re an ACC fan but since I qualify the judgment stands.  Nine years in a row.  It has a nice ring to it doesn’t it?   

Number 9: Bobby Knight is alive and well in Texas

As long as this remains true, there will always be a chance that a fight will break out on the court or at a press conference. 

Number 8: UCONN looks average again

For all of us Duke fans, this is really good news.  Normally I would match Coach K against anybody in a title game but for some reason Calhoun seems to have his number in the big game – you can have your shot block records, just stay out of the tourney and I’ll be good. 

Number 7: Freshmen look like freshmen again

Now that Greg Oden is in the Pros (injured but getting his checks – nice!) freshmen have gone back to looking their age.  I don’t about you, but I find comfort in that.  Oden reminded me of Morgan Freeman – only older! 

Number 6: Jay Bilas was wrong!

He inaccurately predicted that Wisconsin would handle Duke’s pressure and cause problems on the boards because of their size – the 24 point beat-down they laid on the Badgers seemed to argue against that so better luck next time.  Hey didn’t Jay go to Duke or something?   

Number 5: Missouri whipping Maryland in a consolation game

I don’t know if this was a surprise to anyone but the look on Bob the Terp’s face the next morning here at the office was priceless – therefore it had to make the list.   

Number 4: North Carolina seems to be rounding into form—again

Obviously, if you’re picked preseason number 1 (though not all polls have kept them there) then you’re doing something right, but it’s nice to see Carolina getting Ellington and Thompson more into the game offensively.  They need the support if they expect to advance to the Final Four this year – remember: Georgetown is still out there and they’re still good too. 

Number 3: North Carolina vs. Kentucky

An early season treat that is going to test Carolina in a very hostile environment.  I love that they don’t fear the road.  Wouldn’t mind seeing Duke take a page from Roy Boy’s play book in this regard. 

Number 2: Duke’s guards are the deepest and best overall in the country

Duke can hurt you with five different guards and that doesn’t count Kyle Singler, who can handle the ball away from the basket at 6’8.  If they all buy into Coach K’s system all season and continue to work together, this is going to be one very tough out in the tourney for any team in the country. 

And my number one reason to smile about this holiday basketball season... 

Number 1: No Joakim Noah!

Need I say more? 

Happy Holidays!

Why Duke is the Second Best Team in the ACC.

By Patrick Kendall

Well, here we go again.  Time to crack the old knuckles, dust off the keyboard, and get my writing visor out. 

For those of you like me, this is when the fun starts.  We know that the NFL is simply the preamble – the appetizer even -- to the “real” sports season – yes, friends, let’s shout it out all together “COLLEGE BASKETBALL IS BACK!” 

And there are few better ways for college basketball to kick off (for me anyway) than with a Kentucky loss.  So, first and foremost, I must thank Gardner Webb – you guys are my new favorite team that I know absolutely nothing about (but your win is going to change that, I promise).  Kudos to you guys and for Coach Gillespie I’m reminded of a line from The Natural when Roy Hobbs gets his first at bat in the big leagues and takes a called strike that he doesn’t like.  The broadcaster makes the remark, “Welcome to the big leagues, Mr. Hobbs.”

Well, Coach…”Welcome to the big leagues.”

Anyway, back to my true point for this effort.  Bob the Terp at work is at it again, whining and complaining about Duke being a preseason pick to finish second in the ACC.  First off, it’s a preseason pick, Bob, so relax…as we know it’s a long season and a lot can happen between now and the end of February.  Secondly, on paper, Duke looks to be the second best team in the conference…so there.

Many thanks to my cohort and keeper of this excellent page of his that lets us all talk “blue blood basketball” because his research has unearthed the fodder I need to support my argument – his work has revealed some interesting points about this 07 – 08 Duke team:

• Duke returns 10 letterwinners, including six players that started 10 or more games, from the 2006-07 team that went 22-11 and reached the NCAA Tournament for the 12th consecutive season.
• The Blue Devils return 81.3 percent of its scoring, 76.7 percent of their rebounding and 73.7 percent of their assists from last season.
• Duke returns eight of its top nine scorers from the 2006-07 season, including double-figure scorers DeMarcus Nelson (14.1 ppg.), Jon Scheyer (12.2 ppg.) and Greg Paulus (11.8 ppg.).
• The Blue Devil defense was also solid in exhibition play allowing just 49.5 points per game and forcing 70 turnovers in the two contests. Duke came away with 44 steals, including 11 by Jon Scheyer and nine by DeMarcus Nelson.
• Kyle Singler averaged 25.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 2.0 steals per game in exhibition play and shot 20-of-23 (.870) from the field, including a perfect 19-of-19 inside the three-point arc. Singler was also 9-of-10 (.900) from the foul line in the two contests.
• Sophomore Gerald Henderson also posted strong numbers in exhibition play. The 6-4, 210-pound forward averaged 15.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game, while shooting 11-of-19 (.579) from the field and 8-of-10 (.800) from the foul line. Last season, Henderson shot 62.7 percent (37-of-59) from the foul line.
• Jon Scheyer came off the bench in both exhibition games to average 11.0 points and 5.5 steals per game. He also had five assists and zero turnovers. Scheyer started 32 of Duke’s 33 games last season as a true freshman.
• DeMarcus Nelson, Duke’s lone team captain this season, averaged 15.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 4.5 steals in Duke two exhibition game wins. Nelson also had just one turnover in the two contests.
• Freshman Nolan Smith had 13 assists and just four turnovers (3.25:1 assist-to-turnover ratio) in Duke’s two exhibition games. The Upper Marlboro, Md., native averaged 14.5 points and 3.0 rebounds, while shooting 61.1 percent (11-of-18) from the field.
• Junior Greg Paulus closed the 2006-07 season with 12 straight double-figure scoring games and a 45.0 percent (68-of-151) mark from three-point range.

(Okay, Heel fans, go ahead and start your engines!) 

You could make the argument with these facts that Duke has the best “overall” guard talent in the conference in terms of offensive potency (possibly the whole country by seasons’ end)…and by that I mean simply that the squad has all the elements that you want and need to be successful in the ACC and beyond – passing, shooting, athleticism, defensive capability and the ability to finish at the rim.   

What is going to hound Duke (again!) is a lack of front court strength.  Even McRoberts was no force in the paint but he gave them a legitimate shot blocking presence – right now Duke has none.  Obviously, much of this weakness is going to fall to the curious Brian Zoubek.  I say curious because I recall him having some excellent early season games last year only to find himself waaaaaayyyy down the bench by season’s end – spelling McRoberts for short bursts and ultimately offering little but clumsy hands.  Hopefully his off-season was spent at the Elmer’s Glue Factory working as an intern and learning a few “trade” secrets he can ply on the court. 

The cold hard facts are that if Duke is successful at the perimeter game, then they are going to be successful period.  Guard play is the most important aspect of collegiate basketball (no offense to Greg Oden, but Mike Conley was every bit as important to last years’ success) and Florida showed it with three guys that could open up the middle and ultimately make Joke-Him Noah Skills a lottery pick – that is maybe the best evidence (ever!) of how important guards are to the team. 

Of course, the old adage will still be true as well: you live by the three-point shot; you die by it. 

It remains to be seen if Duke is going to march loudly into March on the wings of lofted, high arcing beauty and the sweet sounds of “thwap” or will their funeral knell ring coldly in February with an unforgiving ACC dancing on their 30% 3-point shooting grave.   

Either way, it’s shaping up to be a great year for basketball! 

I’ve even been hearing some pretty good buzz about the “other” school in Carolina country.